By CHRIS GREEN

Harris News Service

TOPEKA -- Word that 1st District Rep. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., apparently wants to run for a Senate seat in 2010 could have ripple effects by prompting a surge of candidates jockeying to succeed him in the House.

But the Democrat who faces long odds in trying to unseat the six-term incumbent from his present post in the Nov. 4 general election wondered Wednesday whether Moran isn't getting a little ahead of himself.

"It sounds like he's putting his cart before the horse, counting chickens or some other mixed metaphors," said James Bordonaro, the Emporia Democrat who'll be opposite Moran on the November ballot.

Travis Murphy, a spokesman for Moran's campaign, said in a written statement Wednesday that wasn't the case.

So far, Moran isn't saying much in response to a Hays Daily News report Friday about a letter he wrote to key supporters outlining his future ambitions.

The newspaper reported that Moran, a Hays resident, wrote that in two years he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Sam Brownback.

Brownback has pledged not to seek a third term. Some political observers speculate he could run to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius in 2010.

The state Republican Party also issued a statement Wednesday praising Moran's track record and saying he'd be a qualified candidate for the Senate.

"I'm sure the congressman will make his intentions well-known at the proper time," said Christian Morgan, executive director of the state GOP. "November 2010 is a long way off."

Moran's ripple effect

But Chapman Rackaway, a Fort Hays State University political scientist, said the leaked letter is likely to have an immediate ripple effect throughout Kansas politics.

An apparent confirmation of Moran's Senate campaign intentions, which some watchers have long suspected, could bolster his Senate fundraising efforts and ward off other potential GOP candidates for the post.

Rackaway said the letter also could send a clear signal to Sebelius about Moran's ambitions as she finishes out her second term.

A showdown between the two politicians, among the state's most popular, has loomed as a possibility for years. But Moran decided against running for governor in 2002 and 2006.

Some analysts suspect Sebelius could have designs on an open Senate seat in 2010, although she's also considered a potential running mate for presidential contender Barack Obama or a candidate for a post in his administration.

"If Sebelius really doesn't want to face Moran for the Senate in the 2010 election, an Obama administration and a cabinet position for her becomes a convenient out," Rackaway said.

In the meantime, candidates across the 1st District could begin lining up to launch bids to replace Moran in the House.

Rackaway said that an open seat for the U.S. House in 2010 figures to draw substantial interest from both Republicans and Democrats, although there are few obvious prospects right now.

Sen. Tim Huelskamp, R-Fowler, who planned to run for Moran's seat two years ago if the congressman sought the governorship, said he's concentrating on his own state Senate race and waiting for some official word on Moran's intentions.

"We're working on re-election now since we've got a Democrat opponent. If Jerry Moran did stand up to run for Senate, we'd probably almost certainly be in that (House) race," Huelskamp said.

The same seat once held by Bob Dole, Keith Sebelius and Pat Roberts has been in Republican hands for decades, but Rackaway said Democrats would be wise to put up a strong fight for the post in 2010.

"I think the Kansas Democrats have to be really empowered by not only Kathleen Sebelius but also (2nd District Rep.) Nancy Boyda," Rackaway said. "The thought has to be that, 'If she can do it there, I can do it out there.' "

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