By Sarah Kessinger

Harris News Service

TOPEKA -- Kansas will lose agricultural productivity and face higher damage costs in the next century as temperatures rise and storms, including flash floods and tornadoes, intensify.

That was the conclusion of a report on climate change and the economy released Wednesday at the National Conference of State Legislatures annual convention in New Orleans.

The report's state-specific findings show Kansas with potential economic losses of $1 billion in coming decades as temperatures continue to rise in response to mounting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

"These trends are predicted to continue due to climate change, and climate models predict that changes in temperature and precipitation may be larger if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced," the report concludes.

In addition to economic loss, legal battles are projected to result from water declines.

"A drier and warmer climate in western Kansas will elevate tension among water rights holders," it states.

Also, the warmer, more humid atmosphere could exacerbate health issues such as asthma.

The report suggests states work together to confront the problem.

"Since state economies are directly linked to the economies of neighboring states and regions, policymakers may wish to consider both state and regional policies to address climate change," the report states.

Several Kansas legislators were attending the New Orleans conference. The report was the collaborative work of NCSL and the University of Maryland. It was funded by the Environmental Defense Fund.

Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius' administration has begun work, similar to other states, on a climate action plan.

But Republican House leaders have criticized the planning process for relying upon the Center for Climate Strategies, a consultant firm from Pennsylvania that is advising several states.

House Speaker Melvin Neufeld, R-Ingalls, says the group is funded by "alarmist" environmental groups.

The speaker has said in the past year that climate change will be good for the Kansas economy by extending the growing season and that increased carbon dioxide would help crop growth.

The NCSL report released this week, however, supports previous research finding higher temperatures caused by mounting CO2 levels will lead to water deficits that will in turn hit agriculture in states like Kansas and Colorado.

In addition, invasive species tend to increase as winter temperatures change and precipitation increases in eastern Kansas. Also, greater flood risk would affect farms, the report notes

"Increased flooding would be destructive to the agricultural sector and could cost as much as $150 million annually by 2032."

University of Kansas geography professor Johannes Feddema has spent recent years researching the state's climate. His work was part of the University of Maryland's study.

Feddema's computer models of a "middle-of-the-road" scenario of global warming shows a 6-inch decline in moisture levels statewide by 2050.

As the earth heats there is an increase in evapotranspiration, leaving less water in the soil.

"It seems to me the big issue with global warming for Kansas is, in fact, our water resources," Feddema said.

The scientist said that state lawmakers' debate this year over whether to add new coal-fired power plants in Kansas fails to include the down sides of that in terms of agriculture. Coal plants are among the largest contributors of CO2 to the atmosphere.

"To me, what's missing is we talk about coal plants and energy export but there is no discussion about what's going to happen as a result."

Feddema said that after testifying to legislators earlier this year, "I left there thinking the farming economy doesn't matter to our Legislature any more."

"I think we should be looking at a holistic picture, where we include a future outlook for all sectors of our economy."