7/4/2009
By MICHAEL STRAND, Salina Journal

Population numbers for Kansas counties County    2000    2008    % change          Cheyenne    3,165    2,742    -15.4     Clay    8,822    8,859    +0.4     Cloud    10,268    9,453    -8.6     Decatur    3,472    2,912    -19.2     Dickinson    19,344    19,328    -0.1     Ellis    27,507    27,801    +1.1     Ellsworth    6,525    6,250    -4.4     Geary    27,947    31,171    +10.3     Gove    3,068    2,548    -20.4     Graham    2,946    2,592    -13.7     Jewell    3,791    3,142    -20.7     Lincoln    3,578    3,261    -9.7     Logan    3,046    2,593    -17.5     McPherson    29,554    29,044    -1.8     Marion    13,361    12,100    -10.4     Mitchell    6,932    6,292    -10.2     Norton    5,953    5,370    -10.9     Osborne    4,452    3,804    -17.0     Ottawa    6,163    6,026    -2.3     Phillips    6,001    5,339    -12.4     Rawlins    2,966    2,503    -18.5     Republic    5,835    4,812    -21.3     Rooks    5,685    5,136    -10.7     Russell    7,370    6,641    -11.0     Saline    53,597    54,657    +1.9     Sheridan    2,813    2,510    -12.1     Sherman    6,760    6,013    -12.4     Smith    4,536    3,901    -16.3     Thomas    8,180    7,277    -12.4     Trego    3,319    2,882    -15.2     Wallace    1,749    1,404    -24.6     Washington    6,483    5,791    -11.9     Sources: U.S. Census Bureau

After several years of slight population growth, projections from the U.S. Census Bureau call for Saline County to begin a slow slide as soon as next year.

The figures, which break population changes down to the city and township level across the state, were released earlier this week.

The next actual national head count is scheduled for 2010, and Salina already is working to ensure the most accurate count possible, said Andy Martin, executive director of the Salina Area United Way, who is leading Census efforts with the city of Salina and the Salina Area Chamber of Commerce.

City leaders hope an accurate count in 2010 will find at least 50,000 people living in Salina, a threshold which would qualify the city for numerous federal grant programs.

"We are continuing to get organized and planned," Martin said. "But it's hard to get people to think about it when it's still nine months away."

The numbers indicate that Saline County's population was 54,657 last year and since 2000 has grown by 1.9 percent -- just less than half of the state's 4.1 percent growth over that same period.

Salina's population was pegged at 46,483, up 74 from the previous year.

According to projections that look nearly two decades into the future, Saline County will peak in population this year, at 55,037.

After this year, the projections call for slight but accelerating declines, with the county losing nearly 1,000 people by 2027.

Predictions no surprise

Martin said those predictions aren't surprising and appear to rely on broad trends, such as population moves from north to south and from rural to urban areas.

But, he added, there can be exceptions to such trends.

"That doesn't mean a unique city like Salina can't change that," he said. "Our planning and prospects here are above and beyond what many cities have."

Still, he said, bucking demographics will require "preparation, perspiration and sheer dumb luck."

Not surprisingly, areas around Fort Riley have seen extensive growth in the past couple of years, with Riley County's population growing nearly 12 percent in the past eight years.

Neighboring Geary County's population increased nearly 20 percent last year, alone, and Junction City's population rose nearly 25 percent from 2007 to 2008.

Parts of Dickinson County also saw population growth, apparently because of the return of the First Infantry Division, with Chapman's population up 6.8 percent since 2000 and 3.6 percent just from 2007 to 2008.

Meanwhile, parts of western Kansas continued to see declines, most steeply in Wallace County, which has lost about one-quarter of its population since 2000 and is losing more than 3 percent a year. Republic County has lost about 20 percent of its people since 2000.

Declines of 10 percent or more in the past few years were also seen in Cheyenne, Sheridan, Sherman, Smith, Thomas, Trego and Washington counties.

n Reporter Mike Strand can be reached at 822-1418 or by e-mail at mstrand@salina.com.

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